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unremarkably , you may pretty much prognosticate who is going to gain an Academy Award . If you ’re a dedicated picture buff , you ’ll know who was nominated for aGolden Globe , what film outflank up a lot of Critics Choice Awards , and who took home a SAG Award . By the time Oscar night rolls around , the winners have all but been anointed .

Yet there have been times when not all has happened as predicted . An underdog performing artist can beat the betting odds and winnings or a fan - favorite movie can win over enough elector to take the top loot . In its 96 - year history , there have been some surprising victories that have left fans happy or anger . These are the five most shocking win ever .

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5. Geena Davis wins for The Accidental Tourist (1988)

1988 was a grand year for actress . In the lead category , Jodie Foster advance her widely - praised work inThe criminate , beating the likes of Glenn Close inDangerous liaison , Meryl Streep inA Cry in the Dark , Melanie Griffith inWorking Girl , and Sigourney Weaver inGorillas in the Mist . The supporting category was just as competitory , with Weaver and co - mavin Joan Cusack the frontrunners forWorking Girl , plus succeeding three - meter Oscar success Frances McDormand ( Mississippi Burning ) and eventualCatwoman Michelle Pfeiffer(Dangerous Liaisons ) .

So it was a shock to see Geena Davis win forThe Accidental Touriston Oscar night . While the motion picture had been nominate for Best Picture , Davis had not win a single critic award before the ceremony ; heck , she was n’t even nominated for a Golden Globe , which is usually a reliable indicant of who will win . It ’s an hunky-dory public presentation , but it did n’t have the critical or popular backing her fellow candidate had during the awards season .

4. Glenn Close loses (again), this time to Olivia Colman in The Favourite (2018)

The World harmonize to Garp . The Big Chill . The Natural . Fatal Attraction . grave liaison . Albert Nobbs . Six times Glenn Close has lost the Oscar , but the seventh time looked like it was the charm withThe Wife , a middlebrow 2018 dramatic play that received good enough notice to push the respected thespian into the Oscar race for Best Actress after a recollective absence . While she had strong competition fromA Star is Born‘s Lady Gaga , it was generally believe that the time ultimately seemed right to give Close her recollective overdue Oscar .

It was not intend to be . In an worried , Close lost , but not to Lady G. ; both lost to British actress Olivia Colman in the critical hitThe Favourite . It was the rare time the Academy actually choose the secure performance that year over a sentimental darling . Colman was terrific and deserved to win for her funny , sad take on the voracious and vindictive Queen Anne . But it was a lamentable sight to see Close go home empty - handed yet again .

3. Adrien Brody beats Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis (2002)

2022 saw four legend of the atomic number 47 screen get gravel by a 29 - class - old up - and - total actor who was then best - make love for having his lead theatrical role dilute to a glorified cameo in 1998’sThe tenuous Red Line . So how did Adrien Brody , that newcomer in question , thump the likes of Jack Nicholson inAbout Schmidt , Daniel Day - Lewis inGangs of New York , Michael Caine inThe Quiet American , and Nicolas Cage inAdaptation ?

For his workplace inThe Pianist , Brody showcased the holy Sacred Trinity of Oscar - win attribute : He lost weight ( 30 British pound ! ) for the role ; he star as a material - lifespan mortal , Polish pianist Władysław Szpilman ; and themovie he was in was set during World War II.In addition , he learned to take on the piano like Szpilman , broke up with his girl , and gave up his elevator car to plunge himself in the role . Perhaps most importantly , he was expectant in the film , and the win , while surprising , was also richly merit .

2. Marisa Tomei wins for My Cousin Vinny and starts an Oscar conspiracy theory (1992)

There was no way Marisa Tomei was going to win in 1993 . Never mind that her brilliant comedic work inMy Cousin Vinnywas suitable of an award , the prevailing wisdom then ( and even now ) is that Oscar does n’t really like comedies . Also , she was up against a quaternary of respectable English and Australian actress , each of whom delivered their own Oscar - worthy performance in purpose more designed to appeal to voters than an shaggy-haired comedy star Joe Pesci as an middle - talian attorney defending the Karate Kid on a trumped - up murder charge .

But deliver the goods she did , and the shock was so great it directly ignited an Oscar conspiracy theory that hang on for decades . Why ? Well , when the previous winner for Best Supporting Actor , Jack Palance , presented the award , some thought the then-74 - twelvemonth - quondam role player was throw and say the wrong name . How else could you explicate Tomei ’s tall win ? This conspiracy was more or less debunked in 2017 , when Faye Dunaway wrongly proclaim thatLa La Landhad won Best Picture , incite the Academy ’s accounting business firm to go onstage and set it right . utter of that fateful night …

1. Moonlight wins Best Picture (2016)

Everyone remember the “ adult Oscar misunderstanding ” when co - presenters Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway were mistakenly given the haywire gasbag and announce thatLa La Landhad won Best Picture . It was n’t entirely outlandish ; after all , the Damien Chazelle musical was the frontrunner to win in the category and had already outflank up major laurels like Best Director and Best Actress earlier in the ceremony .

But what was overshadowed that dark was just improbable and historicMoonlightwinning Best Picture in reality was both at the time and even today . Indie films without a heartwarming , relatable tether , complete with an all - Black plaster cast and focusing on root of sexuality , child misuse , and generational hurt , just didn’twinBest Picture . That it did , and that it beat not only its colorful , star - led rival but also more traditional contenders likeLionandHidden Figures , is surprising enough ; that the Academy picked the right movie , one that will stand the test of time , is more shocking than whatever else bump that fatal Nox .