A few week ago at CES 2025 , Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posited that practical use ofquantum computingwere about 20 years away . Today , Google ’s pass of quantum Hartmut Neven toldReutersthat we could see veridical - globe applications of quantum computation within five years . So , who is right ?
According to Huang , current quantum systems do n’t have enough “ qubits . ” In fact , they ’re little by around five or six orders of order of magnitude . But why do we want so many ? Well , current research suggests that more qubits ensue in fewer computer error , creating more accurate quantum information processing system . Let ’s talk about why that is .
A qubit is just what it sounds like — a quantum bit . It disagree from a binary bit in a normal calculator because it can encode more data at once . The job with qubits is that they ’re quantum particle — and quantum particle do n’t always do what we want . When we head for the hills computations on a quantum computing machine , every one in a thousand qubits “ fail ” ( i.e. stops doing what we want it to do ) and drop off the resolution .
Back in the mean solar day , we had a similar problem with traditional computers . TheENIAC computer , for example , used over 17,000 vacuum cleaner tubes to represent bit and every duad of days tubes would fail and produce errors . But the answer here was straightforward — we just needed to drop the vacuum tubes and recover something that did n’t fail so often . leap onward a few decade , and we ’ve get tiny silicon transistors with a loser charge per unit of one in 1 billion billion .
For quantum computer science , that solution wo n’t do work . Qubits are quantum particles , and quantum particles are what they are . We ca n’t build them out of something else and we ca n’t force them to stay in the state we want — we can only find ways to habituate them as they are .
This is where the “ not enough qubits ” part becomes relevant . Just last twelvemonth , Google used its Willow quantum chip to discover that more qubits touch fewer errors . basically , Google build mega qubits out of multiple forcible qubits , all of which share the same datum . This fundamentally creates a system of failsafes — every time one physical qubit fails , there ’s another one to keep things on track . The more physical qubits you have , the more loser you may stand firm , leaving you with a better chance of have an accurate upshot .
However , since qubits go bad a sight and we need to achieve a fair high accuracy pace to start up using quantum computers for real - world problems , we ’re run low to need a whole destiny of qubits to get the business done . Huang thinks it will take as many as 20 years to get the numbers we need , while Neven is hinting that he can get there in five .
Whenever the breakthrough does happen , Google thinks it can use quantum computing to build well battery for galvanic car , germinate new drugs , and maybe even create Modern energy choice . To take that such undertaking could become potential in as few as five years is pretty out there — but I suppose we wo n’t have to await too long to determine out how correct or how wrong Neven is .
