It seems that Earth is n’t likely to be struck by an incoming asteroid after all , as scientist have revised the impact likeliness of objective 2024 YR4 . The asteroid which has a length of around 130 to 300 feet was spotted at the last of last class , and was originally projected to have a1 % chance of hitting the Earthin 2032 . That chance went as in high spirits as 2.8 % , but has now drop substantially given new data .

Further observations were made this week , with data from the Nox of February 19 – 20 show that the impact chance has pretermit to 0.28 % , according toNASA . The European Space Agency ( ESA ) announced today that the impact likeliness had dropped even further and was now just 0.16 % .

☄ ️ 🔭 The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has throw off from 2.8 % to 0.16 % . Thanks to fresh observations , Earth is now at the boundary of our shrinking ‘ doubt window . ’ If this trend bear on , the risk may soon reach 0 % .

& mdash;European Space Agency ( @esa.int)2025 - 02 - 21T10:09:02.447Z

These kinds of modification in impact probability are to ask , due to the way that asteroid observations work . As more data point is collected , the uncertainty about an asteroid ’s trajectory is reduced , so scientists can more accurately prognosticate its orbit and whether it threatens Earth .

With asteroids , “ The very first observance of an asteroid is ‘ just ’ a exclusive dot of light in the sky , ” ESAexplains . “ At this stage , it ’s not clear what it is or where it ’s going . A second observation is needed to reveal an objective in question , and it is generally agreed that at least three are need to make up one’s mind an orbit – how rapidly our asteroid is going and where it is headed . Further reflection refine the reach a little more , reducing uncertainties until we can be sure of where it wo n’t go : to Earth . ”

With the new observations , NASA has warned that there is around a 1 % chance that the asteroid could bear on the moon . That belike may well drop off over time as well , butexperts saythat even if the asteroid were to impact the Sun Myung Moon , it is unconvincing to cause any problems on Earth as debris from such an impact would burn up in Earth ’s atmosphere .

Scientists are nonplus better and substantially at blot Earth - threatening asteroid , as technology improves and more telescopes are observe the sky . The objective of protecting Earth from potentially dangerous object such as asteroid or comet , also have a go at it as planetary defense , has become an crucial subject with projects like the upcomingNEO Surveyorspacecraft designed specifically to spot near - Earth objects ( NEOs ) , and tests like NASA ’s DART mission where a spacecraft was deliberately crashed into an asteroid tochange its flight .